Prevalence and predictors of severe Crohn’s disease at a tertiary hospital in South Africa
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.7196/SAMJ.2024.v114i4.1667Keywords:
Severe Crohn’s disease, prevalence, predictors, ileocecal location, penetrating diseaseAbstract
Background
Predicting severe Crohn's disease (SCD) can assist in planning risk reduction therapy for SCD, thereby improving disease outcomes.
Objective
To determine the prevalence and predictors of SCD in a sample of South African patients.
Methods
This was a retrospective chart review of patients with Crohn's disease (CD) attending the Gastroenterology Unit at a tertiary hospital in Durban, South Africa. Demographic and clinical variables at diagnosis of CD were collected and analysed for statistical association with development of SCD (defined as the presence of >/= 1 of the following over the course of CD: complex perianal disease, colonic resection >/= 2 small bowel resections, a single small bowel resection > 50cm, or construction of a definitive stoma). The prognostic utility of statistically significant variables was investigated by establishing their sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values for SCD.
Results
The study consisted of 93 patients. The rate of SCD was 64.5%, with 63.3 % of patients developing SCD within 1 year of CD diagnosis. Ileocolonic location (p = 0.046) and penetrating disease at initial diagnosis of CD (p = 0.021) were statistically associated with SCD. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of ileocolonic location for SCD was 72.7%, 47.4%, 66.7% and 54.6%. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of penetrating disease for SCD was 85.7%, 41.7%, 30.0% and 91.0%.
Conclusion
Most patients with CD developed SCD within 1 year of their CD diagnosis. CD with a penetrating phenotype at diagnosis is a good predictor for the devleopment of SCD and should be further investigated.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2024 C Gounden, V Naidoo, Y Moodley
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
Licensing Information
The SAMJ is published under an Attribution-Non Commercial International Creative Commons Attribution (CC-BY-NC 4.0) License. Under this license, authors agree to make articles available to users, without permission or fees, for any lawful, non-commercial purpose. Users may read, copy, or re-use published content as long as the author and original place of publication are properly cited.
Exceptions to this license model is allowed for UKRI and research funded by organisations requiring that research be published open-access without embargo, under a CC-BY licence. As per the journals archiving policy, authors are permitted to self-archive the author-accepted manuscript (AAM) in a repository.
Publishing Rights
Authors grant the Publisher the exclusive right to publish, display, reproduce and/or distribute the Work in print and electronic format and in any medium known or hereafter developed, including for commercial use. The Author also agrees that the Publisher may retain in print or electronic format more than one copy of the Work for the purpose of preservation, security and back-up.
