Characterising the autistic spectrum and the implications for public health
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In this paper, we consider the statistical distribution of Autistic Spectrum Disorder (ASD) levels in the population and hypothesise that it follows an exponential distribution. We note that the diagnosis of ASD over the past decades has been made based on an ever‐ expanded view of what constitutes autism and indicate how the associated disproportionate increase in the number of individuals diagnosed with ASD is consistent with this exponential distribution characterisation. The shift in diagnostic boundaries for ASD and the characterisation of autism as a spectrum has led to a profoundly different statistical picture of the occurrence of autism in the population and has implications for public health policy. In particular, the wider recognition of ASD as a diagnosed mental health condition could lead to a concentration of limited resources for those on the milder end of the spectrum compared with those on the severe end. Certainly, the changing composition of sub‐populations diagnosed with ASD needs to be analysed and interrogated so that a fair allocation of resources is made to the various spectrum mental health conditions.
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